The March sales numbers are out and just when we thought things were improving, and the outlook was more optimistic, we see that March was down about 24% from last year. Let me remind you that this is right on the heels of a 17% increase for January and February. So lets examine the tea leaves or rose petals, what does it all mean?
To understand the present, it helps to understand the past. Last year, March was the best month we had in terms of home sales for all of 2006. This was very uncharacteristic, since the spring selling season usually begins late March or early April. The market began a slow dive after peaking in March. The summer selling season never materialized.
Why is the March number important?
All of the information you see regarding home prices rising or falling, are based upon a rolling 12 month figure. Sales for March 07 will be compared against March 06. As of yet, we have not seen much of a softening in prices. The next few months could tell a different story because now we will begin looking at what was considered to be the beginning of the housing downturn.