Pasadena Housing Market | Pasadena & South Pasadena Real Estate

Pasadena Homes, Key Housing Stats

December 10, 2008 By Doug Willis Leave a Comment

The month of December has historically been a slow month for the housing market. Holiday parties, shopping and decorating keep many people at home instead of previewing houses for sale or even listing their house during this time of year. For those of you who have decided to put conventional aside, you may find home sellers eager to make a deal as the showing activity on their home begins to decline.

If a new house is on your holiday wish list, don’t forget to factor into your equation the cost of money. With interest rates coming down in the last few weeks you may be able to qualify for a more expensive home or find out the one you are considering may have become cheaper. On a $500,000 loan amortized over 30 years, the difference in interest rate payments for the first five years is about $12,500 or $208 per month.

In the next few days, I will report on the November sales of Pasadena homes. While that report focuses more specifically on what has sold, the enclosed chart describes the current market with homes currently listed for sale. The data specifically examines the “single family” market, so condos and townhomes have been excluded. The chart is broken down by zip code and includes the overall numbers tied together to give you an idea of how Pasadena is performing as a city. The data looks at four key indicators of the market including

The Median List Price – the number which indicates one half of the homes are listed for less and the other half is listed for more.
The Average Price per Square Foot – takes the listing price and divides it by the square feet on the property. A smaller house will typically sell at a higher cost per square foot than a larger house.
The Average Days on Market – the meter is running indicating the time a house has been on the market
Total Inventory – the number of homes listed for sale at this time.

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Filed Under: Current News Tagged With: pasadena homes, Pasadena homes for sale, pasadena housing market, Pasadena real estate

Pasadena Median Home Price History

August 7, 2008 By Doug Willis 4 Comments

There has been much speculation on where the Pasadena California real estate market and home prices are headed. And also, to what extent have values declined? The median price has dropped, but to what degree have Pasadena property owners experienced a loss?

Symptomatic of falling home prices are a couple of things:

Supply far exceeding demand resulting in fewer homes being sold, requiring sellers to become more aggressive with pricing
The re-emergence of the under $400,000 market

Both charts below show the same data only graphed differently. The first chart indicates monthly median prices expressed on a continuing line. The bottom chart shows values by calendar year. Looking at the first graph, prices rose steeply from 2004 through 2006, from about $480,000 to $710,000, or roughly an annual increase of 14%.

Charting monthly median prices tends to contain quite a bit of volatility. Who would have thought that the highest median price would have been recorded in December ’06? Remember too, that these points represent when a property was sold. Since the escrow process can be 30 to 60 days, one must look at the numbers and attempt to figure out why one month was so much better or worse. What event happened in March that could have impacted the May sales results?

Personally, I am not to worried with the monthly variances in value from month to month. I am more concerned with a rolling 12 month analysis. The change from July ’08 compared to July ’07 is more important than the difference from June ’08 to July ’08.

Are Pasadena Home Prices Leveling Out?

The last three months of this year show that median home prices have been very consistent with little or no variance. Could this be a sign that the market is beginning to turn around? Since more homes are being sold under $400,000, the market activity above $700,000 for a single family home and $477,000 for condo and townhome needs to stabilize. These are the latest median Pasadena home prices. With price decreases still looming on property listed for sale and the days on market in excess of 100, it does not appear that prices will even out anytime soon. Plus, we will need to see at least 125 units sold per month. Currently we have been experiencing less than 100 monthly units since September ’07.

My opinion is that for the next several months ….advantage home buyers. Market cycles are not likely to turn around in one year’s time. There just have been far too many body punches that will continue to keep the market down for the count. My guess is that we are in round 8 of this 15 round bout.

Filed Under: Current News Tagged With: pasadena california real estate, pasadena housing market, real estate in Pasadena

Upcoming Pasadena Home Sales, A False Positive?

July 24, 2008 By Doug Willis 2 Comments

Pasadena home sales for the month of July are still about 3-4 weeks away from being released on a national level. Expect a reversal in the continuing bad news that has plagued the housing market for the last year. Why the change? Is it from the expected passage of the
Housing Bill making its way through Congress? Have the number of foreclosed homes finally reached their peak and now are beginning to level off? Have home buyer’s come to recognize that the bottom is soon approaching and pent up demand will drive the market higher? Or have consumers just been inundated to death by articles and advertising campaigns stating that “now is a great time to buy a house” and it is finally beginning to pay off?

The answer is ….probably not

It would be great news and also provide a much needed boost to the housing sector if we could pinpoint the expected July turnaround to the proactive position taken by consumers and to a lesser extent, government intervention. But the underlying reason of the better news can only be attributed to one thing, and that is…. time.

It was July 2007, when we noticed a substantial drop in home sales activity. Although projected home sales for the month of July 2008 will be predictably in line with what we have seen so far this year, when compared against last year it will appear that the housing market has began to steady itself and that the worst news is now behind us. The outlook for the remainder of 2008 also appears to be favorable based upon the recorded home sales in the back half of ’07. While the next few months may begin to appear more positive, its not much to get excited about. But then again it will be portrayed as a sign that the market is on track and that in itself will allay consumer skepticism. The perception will be perceived as a return to normalcy and as we all know, perception is reality, when in fact you know it as a false positive.

Filed Under: Current News Tagged With: pasadena ca real estate, Pasadena home sales, pasadena housing market, pasadena market reports, Pasadena market update

Pasadena CA Homes for Sale & Interest_ing Rates

June 24, 2008 By Doug Willis 1 Comment

When you hear the word “sensitive” the Pasadena real estate market is probably not the first thing that springs to mind. That being said, we are probably in the midst of the most sensitive housing market in years. Volatility will continue to reign, until time has a chance to cure the current ills.

If you are looking to buy a property, there is no more important factor than your interest rate.
It can make or break your deal. A slight change can end up costing you hundreds if not thousands of dollars over the life of your loan. The most closely watched barometer of the housing market, followed intently by home buyers and all but ignored by home sellers.

Why?

Because homes are priced based on comparative sales in the neighborhood with very little thought to economic conditions, with one exception as we will discuss in a following paragraph. On the other hand homes are purchased based upon affordability and qualification. Two factors that have maligned the mortgage industry of late, since borrowers are now being asked to document the file and prove their income.

The following graphs reflect the current status of the Pasadena California real estate market for single family homes as of last Friday, June 20.

Interest Rate Increase, Home Sales Decrease

Even though loan qualification is a much more stringent process these days, interest rates remain historically low. However when interest rates begin to rise what impact does this produce on home sales?

As you can see from the graph provided by Bankrate, over the last two and a half months interest have been steadily on the increase. Home buyers begin to recognize this and see the monthly mortgage payment consume more of the monthly budget. Instead of rushing out to lock in a loan, they choose to take a “wait and see” approach, in hopes of this just being a slight adjustment and thinking rates will soon fall to previous levels.

The Trickle Up Effect

When interest rates begin to move up, we see other leading indicators in the housing market begin to move in unison. Typically, inventory or unsold homes will increase as new homes become listed “for sale” and houses that have been “for sale” continue to increase their “days on market” or selling time due to the reduced activity of home buyers.

Now is when home sellers begin to pay attention to the economic indicators which is typified by how many days the house has been on the market for sale. The net result is the longer number of days it takes to sell a house produces a decline in property values.

One way to avoid being at the mercy of the housing market is to accept the fact that pricing your Pasadena home properly is critical to getting out of this market as quickly as possible. The longer you’re in it, the less likely your chances of winning.

Filed Under: Current News Tagged With: interest rates, Pasadena home sales, pasadena housing market

Pasadena California Real Estate April Recap

May 13, 2008 By Doug Willis 1 Comment

The Pasadena real estate market may be getting a pulse. After sales declines of 50% for the last three months, sales continued to decline but unit sales were of by a mere 28%, compared to April ’07. Compared to last month, unit sales increased from 38 to 51 units or 34%. Looking at some other key indicators such as days on market, it is still talking much longer to sell a house this year, which probably explains why homes are selling at a greater discount compared to their asking prices as evidenced by the percentage of sale price to list price.

According to Altos Research, there are 487 single family properties for sale in Pasadena, indicating a 9.5 months supply, very indicative of a buyers market.

Condo’s & Townhomes

Sales of condos and townhomes also decreased 14% compared to last year, but unit sales continued to decline by almost 50%. Compared to last month units increased from 25 to 31 and sales prices were down about 2% from $470,000 to $460,000. Last year we saw an increase in activity in new units which helped propel the median prices in this category. Now with the slower market, condos and townhomes are returning to median prices seen in 2006.

We are seeing some of the same characteristics as the single family market, mainly condos and townhomes are selling at a bigger discount to their listing prices. Altos Research reports that 289 condos & townhomes are available for sale. With 31 reported sales in April, a 9.3 months supply of inventory exists. If you would like the latest research information on the Pasadena real estate market, email me, indicating single family or condo.

A list of all the homes / townhomes that were sold in Pasadena, Altadena and South Pasadena for the month of April is available at up2daterealestate.

Note: We have modified our “days on market” with two numbers, (1) is days on market for the current listing period, (2) represents cummulative days on market indicating how long a property has been for sale. For instance, a property may have been for sale for 60 days and did not sell and was relisted with a new agent one week later. Numerically it would read 1/61.

Filed Under: Current News, Up2date Sales Tagged With: pasadena housing market, Pasadena real estate, Pasadena Real Estate Agent

Pasadena Homes, Key Housing Stats