Pasadena & South Pasadena Real Estate » Pasadena home sales

Pasadena Home Sales for September

Doug Willis — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 23:54:20 +0000

Beginning this month I am going to change how the monthly sales results are reported for the Pasadena Real Estate market. Instead of just looking at median prices, we are now going to overlay the price per square foot for the same period.

Pasadena Single Family - Price per Square Foot & Median Price

Anytime you hear how sales are being reported in the media the focus is always on median prices. This year has been a very unusual year in the sense that sales of foreclosed homes in Pasadena have been a much bigger segment of the market. As a result the increased unit sales resulting from distressed properties tend to over exaggerate the decline in property values.

The advantage of adding the price per square foot is this measurement will trend along the same lines as the median price of homes sold, but the peaks and valleys are not as pronounced. By eliminating the highs and lows, you will see the natural progression of pricing as we move through the year and seasonality that Pasadena home sales experience. Now having said that the month of May price per square foot of $522 seems way out of line. I went back and checked my numbers and it appears to be at least $100 too high.

Pasadena Single Family Homes - Inventory and Sales Levels

Pasadena’s Leading Housing Indicators

Units Sold – The fact that unit sales rose quickly and seem to be declining just as fast is probably not cause for concern. It’s not uncommon for home sales to peak in July or August and then slowly decline through the end of the year.
Inventory Levels – With a current inventory level of 4.4 months based upon the current rate of sale, inventory levels are very moderate if not on the low side. I wouldn’t anticipate much change as we approach the holiday season unless we begin to see more foreclosed inventory hitting the market. This could be more of a factor this year due to the moratoriums that were placed on banks foreclosing last year during the fourth and first quarters.

Summary

Single Family, Townhome and Condominium Inventory and Sale Units

Overall the outlook for the Pasadena real estate market at least where residential is concerned is much more favorable than this time last year. The forecast for next year could be quickly forthcoming as Congress may or may not extend the $8000 home buyer tax credit. Since we may see the fed begin to withdraw from purchasing mortgage bonds, some type of incentive may be needed to continue the momentum in the housing market. Consumers have become accustomed to interest rates in the low to mid 5% range and without any incentive from Uncle Sam may be contented to sit on the sidelines and wait for the next program to come their way.

And now you’re up2date on Pasadena real estate.

The source for the market data used in the graphs is from TRENDGRAPHIX,INC.

Pasadena’s July Home Sales Are Highest Since 2006

Doug Willis — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 00:40:40 +0000

I don’t think there should be any doubt left in the minds of local residents, the seasonal home selling season has returned. Little did we know or realize that it was going to be 3 years to the day when the market started to fall, or that it would correct itself 36 months later.

It was July 2006 when real estate markets began to soften. A gradual decline eventually turned into a market free fall. However, all of that appears to be behind us as we head into the back half of 2009. The good news if you are a property owner is to look at the median price. In August, months of anguish will soon come to an end as the median price scenario will correct itself. This will probably produce more of a psychological lift than a monetary, but since home buying has much to do with people’s perceptions and where they think the economy is headed it should be treated very positively. If you are in the market to buy a house, the last thing you want to hear is that home prices keep dropping. News like this could very easily make you decide to postpone your purchase. Why buy now if you feel that in a few months you can save some money?

July’s positive news about the Pasadena housing market includes

a 26% increase in unit sales from June
a single family median home price of $600,000
a strong August based upon the homes in escrow
and another strong performance in the townhome and condominium market

The presentation below includes a 5 year pricing history in terms of median prices and unit sales for the Pasadena real estate market.

Pasadena Homes July '09 Analysis

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Was June the Turning Point for Pasadena Home Sales?

Doug Willis — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 04:38:54 +0000

It had appeared the momentum in the Pasadena real estate market had been building. Sales were increasing, buyer’s were becoming increasingly optimistic, and sales were beginning to move away from just the lower end of the market.

The number of homes in escrow was increasing and stories were developing of multiple offers and quick sales. And we are not just referring to distressed properties. There is really no other term to describe the month of June than just an old fashioned “blow out”.

Almost every indicator showed a positive increase. the number of home sales increased 45%, the median price of a single family home was up almost $50,000 over last month. Even the townhome / condominium market which has been a major drag on reporting, sprang to life with approximately a 50% increase in the median price and unit sales over May.

Now that Newsweek has finally declared the recession over, I guess we have cause for celebration. Housing inventory, a closely watched barometer regarding the health and trends in the market is now down to about a 5.5 months supply.

It seems very puzzling to me that our local housing market can be so strong. Considering the local and national economic situation, what is it that is creating the demand for housing? Consumer confidence is not exactly at its highest levels but there is something that is driving people to buy houses.

What do you think it is?

Pasadena Homes June09 Aalysis

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Pasadena Home Sales Increase in May

Doug Willis — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 21:50:36 +0000

Unit sales along with the median price make positive gains in May, continuing an upward trend in 2009.

Predictability, which was absent in the Pasadena real estate market during the last two years appears to be making a return. Predictable that is, when the seasonal home buying months once again become the months of May thru August. The median price of a Pasadena home exceeded $500,000 for the first time since November 2008.

The housing market which has exhibited some positive trends of late still offers a few inconsistencies. For example, the market for single family homes is outselling the condo/townhome market by a ratio of 2:1. In terms of months of supply, single family is about 6.75 months, and the condo market is closer to 10 months. Also sellers of condos and townhomes are having to be more aggressive in marketing their properties, evidenced by the final sales price achieving only 90% of the original asking price.

The catalyst for this market remains homes under $500,000. One of the most telling statistics is how the market has changed. As an example in May of 2008, only 13 homes sold at a price below $500,000. In May of this year that number increased to 28.

In the market for homes over $1,000,000 there were 18 homes selling in May 2008 and the number dropped this year to 11. Whereas “declining” used to be the adjective of choice to provide a one word label that summed up the Pasadena real estate market, I think the new word now becomes “shifting“.

Pasadena Homes May 09 Sales Report

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Pasadena April Home Sales & Stability is the New Black

Doug Willis — Wed, 20 May 2009 04:36:41 +0000

If you had to make an attempt at describing the activity for the month of April in the Pasadena housing market a few words come to mind……stable, holding, and steady. These words are a little misleading in the sense that they are more descriptive than they sound.

Although they don’t indicate it, these terms are expressive due to the fact that the real estate prices in Pasadena have maintained the momentum they began to gather in March. As if we ever would have thought that just maintaining the status quo would become the new black.

The sales results for April were as close of a mirror image to March as we are likely to see. Sales held steady with about 100 units sold, while the median price dipped to $462,500 from $475,000 last month. A rounding error by previous calculations.

There are a few bright spots beginning to appear such as:

The units that moved from “back up” to “pending” increased significantly indicating home buyers are feeling confident about their purchase and full y intend to close escrow
The number of Townhome and Condominium units in escrow increased while prices appear to be bouncing off of the bottom.

All of the data is recapped in the 13 slides below including 5 year charts and graphs. Median prices and monthly unit sales recapping the Pasadena real estate market provide “at a glance” snapshots indicating the highs and lows. Click the icon in the lower right corner to view in full screen mode.

Pasadena Homes April09 Sales Report

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Pasadena Home Sales in December, Not So Joyous

Doug Willis — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 02:08:01 +0000

Retail sales for the month of December were released today. Year on year sales indicated a decline of 9.8%. A 10% decline in the price of Pasadena homes would be welcome news. Actually a 15% decline would be nice to see. Isn’t December supposed to be the most wonderful time of the year?

Other than sharing a name and a freeway, the Cities Pasadena are the antithesis of each other at least in terms of home prices. The South Pasadena real estate market can sell fewer homes and maintain an increase. On the other hand, Pasadena sells nearly twice the number of single family homes and prices fall $200,000 or 27%.

Pasadena Single Family Home Sales

The road to recovery begins with an increasing number of homes being sold. This is happening at least in the single family category and a positive sign. The housing market has been similar to a car wreck. You take an immediate inventory of your senses to see if you are okay to continue driving. Most people are moving past the housing freefall. Lower interest rates are getting people back in the car.

We are beginning to see some evidence that selling times are slowly decreasing. Inventory currently stands at about a 5 month supply, again a sign of normalcy returning. If only we could find any positive proof that prices would begin to stabilize. I actually thought the December median price would be closer to $515,000. Looking at January, it appears that the median price could fall to $460,000 based upon the median price of homes currently in escrow.

Pasadena Townhomes and Condominiums

If you are a Buyer in this market you have a tremendous amount of leverage. Property owners have got to be desperate for an offer. If this were horse racing, bet the trifecta, prices are down, the number of sold units is down and selling times are up, way up. I think homebuyers are making their choice very clear, a single family residence offers a much better value in today’s market than a condominium or townhome.

Pasadena Real Estate Outlook

I am polishing the crystal ball with another coat of Windex this month. At the beginning of 2008, the number of homes that were sold were at some of their lowest levels in years. Look for sold units to double at a minimum. Prices will continue to drop compared to the previous 12 months, however we will begin to see more consistent median prices on a month to month basis.

In any market one of the great unknowns is consumer sentiment, and how do consumers feel about investing in the economy and spending money. Lets home the new administration begins with an increased consumer confidence. After all, if you believe it you can see it.

Pasadena Homes Dec08 Sales Report

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Pasadena Home Sales up2date Review

Doug Willis — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 23:26:02 +0000

I have prepared my elevator speech for the Pasadena housing market….”consistent”. There you have it, nothing fancy, and nothing dramatic, just a quick conveyance of an idea that succinctly sums up Pasadena home sales for the month of September. Consistent was derived by looking at the median price decline for the month, which just happens to be the same decline as we had in August.

Again, rather than insert a matrix of numbers and try to explain each segment of our real estate market you will recognize the graphic at the end of the paragraphs. All of the market data is now put into a PowerPoint presentation and delivered via a slideshow. To me, the synopsis is much easier to read and therefore easier to understand.

Allow me to elaborate on a couple of the highlights in September. Inventory (meaning homes and condos available for sale) is beginning to decline. The main emphasis for this has to do with seasonal occurrences rather than increasing home sales. We are not however seeing the monthly volume swings that we used to experience when the market was much more active. In last month’s report I had suggested that we would see a big increase in the number of homes (units) that were sold. We did, by almost a 3:2 ratio. That could easily continue for the next several months. The reason is that in the 4th quarter of 2007, home sales fell off the radar screen, so today’s increase is against last years poor performance. Units will increase, however the same will not be applicable to prices. October and November’s median price last year was $655,000 and $654,000 respectively. That elevator has a way’s to go before we see those kinds of prices again.

However the long journey begins with a short step!

Pasadena Homes Sept08 Sales Report

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Pasadena Homes – Sales Report by Month

Pasadena CA Real Estate August Sales Report

Pasadena Real Estate July Sales Report

Upcoming Pasadena Home Sales, A False Positive?

Doug Willis — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 22:19:49 +0000

Pasadena home sales for the month of July are still about 3-4 weeks away from being released on a national level. Expect a reversal in the continuing bad news that has plagued the housing market for the last year. Why the change? Is it from the expected passage of the
Housing Bill making its way through Congress? Have the number of foreclosed homes finally reached their peak and now are beginning to level off? Have home buyer’s come to recognize that the bottom is soon approaching and pent up demand will drive the market higher? Or have consumers just been inundated to death by articles and advertising campaigns stating that “now is a great time to buy a house” and it is finally beginning to pay off?

The answer is ….probably not

It would be great news and also provide a much needed boost to the housing sector if we could pinpoint the expected July turnaround to the proactive position taken by consumers and to a lesser extent, government intervention. But the underlying reason of the better news can only be attributed to one thing, and that is…. time.

It was July 2007, when we noticed a substantial drop in home sales activity. Although projected home sales for the month of July 2008 will be predictably in line with what we have seen so far this year, when compared against last year it will appear that the housing market has began to steady itself and that the worst news is now behind us. The outlook for the remainder of 2008 also appears to be favorable based upon the recorded home sales in the back half of ’07. While the next few months may begin to appear more positive, its not much to get excited about. But then again it will be portrayed as a sign that the market is on track and that in itself will allay consumer skepticism. The perception will be perceived as a return to normalcy and as we all know, perception is reality, when in fact you know it as a false positive.

Pasadena CA Homes for Sale & Interest_ing Rates

Doug Willis — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 17:50:05 +0000

When you hear the word “sensitive” the Pasadena real estate market is probably not the first thing that springs to mind. That being said, we are probably in the midst of the most sensitive housing market in years. Volatility will continue to reign, until time has a chance to cure the current ills.

If you are looking to buy a property, there is no more important factor than your interest rate.
It can make or break your deal. A slight change can end up costing you hundreds if not thousands of dollars over the life of your loan. The most closely watched barometer of the housing market, followed intently by home buyers and all but ignored by home sellers.

Why?

Because homes are priced based on comparative sales in the neighborhood with very little thought to economic conditions, with one exception as we will discuss in a following paragraph. On the other hand homes are purchased based upon affordability and qualification. Two factors that have maligned the mortgage industry of late, since borrowers are now being asked to document the file and prove their income.

The following graphs reflect the current status of the Pasadena California real estate market for single family homes as of last Friday, June 20.

Interest Rate Increase, Home Sales Decrease

Even though loan qualification is a much more stringent process these days, interest rates remain historically low. However when interest rates begin to rise what impact does this produce on home sales?

As you can see from the graph provided by Bankrate, over the last two and a half months interest have been steadily on the increase. Home buyers begin to recognize this and see the monthly mortgage payment consume more of the monthly budget. Instead of rushing out to lock in a loan, they choose to take a “wait and see” approach, in hopes of this just being a slight adjustment and thinking rates will soon fall to previous levels.

The Trickle Up Effect

When interest rates begin to move up, we see other leading indicators in the housing market begin to move in unison. Typically, inventory or unsold homes will increase as new homes become listed “for sale” and houses that have been “for sale” continue to increase their “days on market” or selling time due to the reduced activity of home buyers.

Now is when home sellers begin to pay attention to the economic indicators which is typified by how many days the house has been on the market for sale. The net result is the longer number of days it takes to sell a house produces a decline in property values.

One way to avoid being at the mercy of the housing market is to accept the fact that pricing your Pasadena home properly is critical to getting out of this market as quickly as possible. The longer you’re in it, the less likely your chances of winning.

Pasadena California Residential Real Estate, 1st Quarter Recap

Doug Willis — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 00:10:19 +0000

Earlier this week we reported on the Pasadena real estate market and the sales numbers for March.

Two things are quite obvious; unit sales are off by about 50% across the board. This seems to be true in LA County as well as California. And secondly, inventory levels of homes listed for sale are at the highest point we have probably seen in the last 10 years.

Since the Pasadena area covers such a wide geography and demographic area and because all real estate is local, I decided to break down the analysis by zip code and further dissect what is happening with home values in our city.

Zip Code 91101 – This area is dominated by condos and townhomes. Last year saw quite a bit of activity on newer projects on E. Green St., S. Hudson and Union Street. A market shift has occurred with more mid priced units selling as opposed to higher end units. There are close to 29 homes in foreclosure with about a 10 month supply of inventory.

Zip Code 91103 – Homes within this zip code could be referred to as “A Tale of Two Cities”. This area includes million dollar homes in Linda Vista and also homes east of the Rose Bowl to Marengo. The million dollar market remains fairly strong, however if you exclude homes that sold over $1 million, the median price has fallen from $540,000 last year to $450,000 this year. There are close to 130 homes in this eastern part of the zip code in some stage of foreclosure and approximately a 1 1/2 year supply of homes for sale.

Zip Code 91104 – Including, Orange Heights, Bungalow Heaven, Historic Highlands, Garfield Heights and Brigden Ranch. There is a good cross section of homes in this area and the median price is down about 12%. Also this area is increasing in the number of foreclosures with about 100 properties currently listed. Close to a 10 month supply of homes on the market for sale.

Zip Code 91105 – This area includes San Rafael and features homes in the above average to high price range. It has also been the best performing neighborhood in Pasadena as far as maintaining value and will also be home to the new Pasadena Eco House. Home values have remained strong partly due to the low number (24) of properties in foreclosure. Current inventory indicates about a 12 month supply. This high number of homes for sale could very well produce some softening of values in the future.

Zip Code 91106 – This area features single family homes in Madison Heights in the million dollar plus range, but is also comprised of many condos and townhomes which make up about 75% of the units sold. Most of the price weakness in this area is from the 20+ year old townhomes and condos. Last year we did see the more expensive homes selling over their asking prices, however that has not been the case this year. This are 55 properties in foreclosure with the emphasis on condo/townhomes and several multi-family properties.

Zip Code 91107 – Local neighborhoods include Upper Hastings, Lower Hastings and Chapman Woods. Very similar to the characteristics in zip code 91104. Last year 12 recorded sales (townhomes & condo’s) occurred below $500,000, this year not one recorded sale. Again more evidence that the low end market is suffering the brunt of the housing slowdown. This zip code has suffered the largest decrease in unit sales and with the anemic sales in March, the current inventory is close to a 1 1/2 year supply. Foreclosure property count is 90 units and has been on the rise.

Pasadena & South Pasadena Real Estate » Pasadena home sales

Pasadena Home Sales for September

Pasadena’s Leading Housing Indicators

Summary

Pasadena’s July Home Sales Are Highest Since 2006

Was June the Turning Point for Pasadena Home Sales?

Pasadena Home Sales Increase in May

Pasadena April Home Sales & Stability is the New Black

Pasadena Home Sales in December, Not So Joyous

Pasadena Single Family Home Sales

Pasadena Townhomes and Condominiums

Pasadena Real Estate Outlook

Pasadena Home Sales up2date Review

Pasadena Homes – Sales Report by Month

Upcoming Pasadena Home Sales, A False Positive?

The answer is ….probably not

Pasadena CA Homes for Sale & Interest_ing Rates

Interest Rate Increase, Home Sales Decrease

The Trickle Up Effect

Pasadena California Residential Real Estate, 1st Quarter Recap