Creative Financing Gone Awry

A few years ago, the Pasadena real estate market offered something for everyone. It did not matter if you classified yourself as an investor, a speculator or just a homeowner, the opportunity was there to buy real estate with Monopoly money. The late night TV infomercials refer to it as OPM or “other people’s money”. Create wealth, build your portfolio and retire rich, just don’t use any of your own cash.

Generally speaking, if money is readilly available the chance of abuse will likely increase. As we have seen, the easy credit policies of the past failed to suffuciently factor in the increased cost of risk. As a result……well you know the story because we are living the “as a result”.

To see how easy it was to manipulate the real estate market look no further than right here in Pasadena. Let’s take a company, a mortgage broker. Their primary function is to find loans for home buyers. In addition to originating loans they also have a couple of real estate agents. Not uncommon. Many companies vertically integrated themselves, offering buyers one stop for all of their real estate needs. Nothing strange about that, but what does seem out of the ordinary is what has transpired several months after the transaction has closed.

Here is a scenario that seemed to repeat itself a couple of times:

Purchase offers were typically made on Pasadena homes offering a price in excess of the listing price with the seller providing a credit back to the buyer in the amount of a couple of percent. Again considering the market at the time this was not that uncommon. On a $700,000 home, a credit of $14,000 would usually insure the buyer would not have any out of pocket costs. Therby buying real estate with no money down. Depending on the profitability of the loan the lender had some autonomy to influence their commission in the process.

Once the house closed, the originator of the loan was paid generous commissions to originate the loan, in addition to the employed real estate sales people who were also paid a commission. Title to the new property was typically taken in the name of one individual.

After the property was purchased, the new owner never moved in, instead opting to lease the home. The advantage of 100% financing allows someone to own a home that may not have the required downpayment. It will not cover the principal, interest, taxes and insurance at current market rents. Principal and interst would exceed $4100 / month. The market rent woud be about $3000 / month.

Almost one year to the purchase date, the house is relisted as a short sale. The listing company is the same company that represented the buyer in the original purchase. A homeowner facing default can usually choose the real estate agent they prefer to sell the house. Once the house becomes bank owned, most banks have their own list of preferential brokers.

It’s very hard to say if there was any shananigans going on here. Maybe it is just a strange set of circumstances. The real estate market had some amazing appreciation in the previous years and the thought could have been that the market would continue to increase. After all, nobody seemed to predict the house of cards that the lending and housing industry was based upon.

If someone’s intention was to create deception but fly under the radar this would be a much more easier way to pull it off consistently as opposed to other forms of mortgage fraud, previously reviewed here. However if you can get in with nothing down, then the opportunity for appreciation may outweigh the risk for decline, especially if you have nothing to lose. After all, its other people’s money.

Pasadena Median Home Price History

up2daterealestate.com housing analysis

There has been much speculation on where the Pasadena California real estate market and home prices are headed. And also, to what extent have values declined? The median price has dropped, but to what degree have Pasadena property owners experienced a loss?

Symptomatic of falling home prices are a couple of things:

  1. Supply far exceeding demand resulting in fewer homes being sold, requiring sellers to become more aggressive with pricing
  2. The re-emergence of the under $400,000 market

Both charts below show the same data only graphed differently. The first chart indicates monthly median prices expressed on a continuing line. The bottom chart shows values by calendar year. Looking at the first graph, prices rose steeply from 2004 through 2006, from about $480,000 to $710,000, or roughly an annual increase of 14%.

Charting monthly median prices tends to contain quite a bit of volatility. Who would have thought that the highest median price would have been recorded in December ’06? Remember too, that these points represent when a property was sold. Since the escrow process can be 30 to 60 days, one must look at the numbers and attempt to figure out why one month was so much better or worse. What event happened in March that could have impacted the May sales results?

Personally, I am not to worried with the monthly variances in value from month to month. I am more concerned with a rolling 12 month analysis. The change from July ’08 compared to July ’07 is more important than the difference from June ’08 to July ’08.
up2daterealestate.com housing analysis

Are Pasadena Home Prices Leveling Out?

The last three months of this year show that median home prices have been very consistent with little or no variance. Could this be a sign that the market is beginning to turn around? Since more homes are being sold under $400,000, the market activity above $700,000 for a single family home and $477,000 for condo and townhome needs to stabilize. These are the latest median Pasadena home prices. With price decreases still looming on property listed for sale and the days on market in excess of 100, it does not appear that prices will even out anytime soon. Plus, we will need to see at least 125 units sold per month. Currently we have been experiencing less than 100 monthly units since September ’07.

My opinion is that for the next several months ….advantage home buyers. Market cycles are not likely to turn around in one year’s time. There just have been far too many body punches that will continue to keep the market down for the count. My guess is that we are in round 8 of this 15 round bout.

up2daterealestate Pasadena Housing Market

Pasadena Residential Property Sales Report for June

Pasadena Single Family June

The Pasadena housing market continues to limp along on one leg. While this strategy seems to work well for Tiger Woods, it does not bode well if you are a property owner with a house to sell. Sales results for the month of June continue to confirm what we have seen year to date with (1) fewer home sales and (2) decline in the median sales price.Pasadena Single Family June

The June median price was $700,000, compared to $790,000 last year, a decline of 11.3%. Compared to Pasadena’s median price last month of $760,000, prices declined 7.9%. June is normally a strong month for housing as evidenced by last years median price of $790,000 for May and June. The fact that we experienced further declines this past month indicate that the housing market is continuing to soften.

The mix of units sold is changing. In June ’07, there were 4 homes that sold below $500,000 ranging in price from $449.0 to $495. This year 10 homes sold below $500,000 with prices from $339.9 to $469.9. The low end of the market has re-emerged with sales of homes in the range of $500.0 to $999.0 slowing. Currently 504 units/properties are either active, pending or in back-up position resulting in approximately a 10 month inventory supply.

Pasadena Condo’s & Townhomes

Condo’s and Townhomes continue to lag and drag. They lag the units sold in comparison to the single family market and they continue to drag down the overall performance of the housing market with their larger declines in value. .Pasadena up2date June GraphSales results for June indicate a median price of $477,500 which was down almost 17% from last June’s median price of $575,000 and we sold almost 50% fewer units. Compared to last month’s median price of $488,000, the median price declined 2.1%. We also have approximately a 10 month supply here as well with 319 units on the market today.

Median Price vs Average Price

I am often asked why we do not include an “average” price on our market updates. To me, an average price is not a good indicator of what is happening in the market. Here is an example. Currently the most expensive listing in Pasadena is a house for $52 million. If this house were to sell, can you imagine how the numbers would be inflated and thrown all out of proportion due to this one sale based upon an average? Median prices direct us towards the middle. Average prices tend to sku the results, either positively or negatively.

Ckick on the link to see all of the homes sold in Pasadena, South Pasadena, and Altadena for the month of June.

The data used for this report was compiled from the i-Tech MLS on 7/10. The data will only include properties listed in the i-Tech MLS.

Pasadena Real Estate, May Sales Report

Pasadena Real Estate Single Family

May was an exciting month with the Phoenix Mars Lander arriving on the Red Planet. Its goal is to look for signs of life. Was there water on Mars? If the Mars Lander somehow became misguided and landed in the San Gabriel Valley, would it find signs of life in the Pasadena Real Estate market?

There does appear to be some activity as the positive signs indicate increasing unit sales in single family homes. Monthly increases this year are much smaller than in years past, but they are slowly on the rise and the gap between unit sales last year is decreasing. There is still some pricing weakness in the market as sellers have to offer bigger discounts to sell their home.
Pasadena Real Estate Single Family

We are seeing the market for homes under $500,000 redevelop, thanks to foreclosed and bank owned properties. This month, 12 homes sold under $500,000 compared to only 3 in May ’07. On the other end of the market, $1 million dollar homes declined with 17 sales this month compared to 27 last year.

Pasadena Townhomes and Condominiums

I recently recapped the Pasadena Townhome and Condominium building boom. Looking at the sales results in this area you have to ask “What were they thinking”? New multi-use projects are nearing completion and are targeted at upper end homebuyer’s.Pasadena Town Homes
Median sale prices are near 2006 levels and current inventory is close to a 10 month supply. Current sellers and developers are becoming more aggressive in an attempt to solicit offers from the declining pool of buyers.

Market to Level in July

Based upon the current trends, July should be the point we begin to see equilibrium as the decline became very pronounced last year. The market probably will not pick up; it’s just that the news reports will not seem so ominous.

Pasadena Real Estate Sales Chart

Pricing Your Home to Sell, an Artful Science

Pricing is key

Pricing your Pasadena home correctly is the critical first step to a successful transaction. Last week I provided solid evidence in a post regarding the Pasadena Real Estate Secret, that if you price your home properly you will (1) sell it in much less time and (2) maximize the value, by selling it for more money, plus reducing your ongoing out of pocket expenses.

Pricing a property correctly can cause much consternation between salespeople and homeowners. Most homeowners who are considering the sale of a home have made themselves aware of their competition by visiting open houses and collecting “for sale” flyers. However they may not have the latest information on what has actually sold, since this data is not as readily available. Since homes listed for sale tend to represent the high end of the market, comparisons may be made based upon incorrect information.

Determining the Proper Price

So many times I have heard that the property down the street sold for “x” amount, therefore my house should be worth “y”. Many times the owner is comparing only price for price and has failed to factor in the differences in square footage, lot size, beds/baths and amenities the comparable home featured.

To simplify the comparison, I developed the following spreadsheet and chart to visually display the differences and better explain why one home may be comparable in bed/bath’s and square footage, but may sell for a much different price. The following homes have sold within the past 70 days in Northeast Pasadena:

Pricing is key

I have represented each house that has sold with a numbered icon to display the value. When a home moves up the price scale, it will also move to the right indicating more features and amenities. This is effective because you are looking at houses in the same neighborhood so there is less variance based upon location and also when you are comparing it to properties within 10% of a square footage variance.

Value = Price + Perceived Benefit

Today’s home buyer is very discerning. They know they do not have much competition so they can afford to be patient and hope to get the best value for their dollar. After looking at 8-10 houses during the course of an afternoon, you begin to get a good idea of how homes are priced. Selling your home is similar to a job interview, price it correctly and you have made a great first impression and may very well get the best home buyer candidate. If your price is deemed uncompetitive, you may find it sitting on the market. Since you read up2daterealestate, you know the longer it sits, the more you loose.

If you’re considering the sale of your property and would like a market analysis, give me a call or send me an email. I will be glad to provide you with a detailed analysis of your market area!

Pasadena Value