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Pasadena Single Family – Unit Home Sales for the Last 5 Years

January 15, 2012 By 4 Comments
5 year Pasadena Single Family Sales History

The lady across the table was hoping to sell her house and have enough money left over to purchase a newer house in the area. She had owned her home for over 30 years and was hoping to find something smaller and easier to maintain. When she saw the recent values in the neighborhood she said “If that is all my house is worth, I’ll just wait for a while until the market bounces back”.

I think what we have been seeing and experiencing with home prices and market activity defines the new normal. For those home sellers who continue to think we are only experienceing a dip and a rebound is just around the corner, are you also waiting for gasoline to return to $2.50 per gllon? Prices are going to fluctuate a few percentage points above and below the flatline for a while. Perhaps a long while.

Housing Market Characteristics

For the last couple of years if you were trying to sell your house, your chances were much better during the January – June period than they were during the July – December months. Could it be back to school, could it be the holiday season? Whatever it was, there was a tapering of demand in the back half of the year.

Single Family Home Sales in Pasadena for a 5 year period

Annual Number of SF Sales in Pasadena

The other thing to point out is that monthly home sales are characterized by sizeable volume swings. So the next time you hear a media report that says monthly home sales increased or decreased by X %, you will understand that its nothing to get alarmed or excited about. That is one thng that has remained normal in either a bull or bear housing market.

Signs of Improvement?

For the housing market to begin appreciating again (and we are not speaking in terms of 2004-2006 appreciateion) certain things have to happen:

  • interest rates have to be favorable. There is no doubt that current interst rates have never been more appealing. If you have not refinanced or if you have deceided to buy, what are you waiting for? Your housing dollar will never go farther.
  • easier access to money – current lending policies and qualification requirements are keeping many people out of the housing market and placing a lid on demand. As business runs in cycles lending policies will eventually loosen up but it will be a slow process
  • employment numbers will need to improve. Until more people are working and can meet the qualifications (see above) there will be a sluggish housing market.
  • distressed properties – as long as there are plenty of short sales and foreclosures available for sale, price apprciation will be harder to obtain. Looking at markets where there are reported signs of a turnaround in housing, the market is either defined by fewer distressed propertis or a healthly local economy.

While our economy in Pasadena may be better than ther parts of California, we do have an above average inventory of homeowners who are either behind or underwater on their mortgage.

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Squirrel!

February 9, 2011 By 2 Comments
Pasadena Single Family Sales/Inventory

Not a typical title you usually see associated with a website that reports on real estate and related issues. But then again, what if anything in the last few years has been normal or predictable?

There is a reason it is called a Squirrel

Reporting on housing market trends might not be the most exciting thing to many readers, so the challenge becomes how to get someone interested and capture their attention. How do you take data and make it interesting for the reader? Many of the most effective presentations I have seen tell a story and present an analogy that people can relate to. They begin to see themselves doing the same thing or experiencing the same moment. Therefore a squirrel and the housing market are no exceptions. How many times have you been driving down the street and up ahead 50 yards is a squirrel sitting on the side of the curb. As you approach the rodent begins to run out in the middle of the street. As you begin to rely on your instincts and drive defensively you begin to swerve in the opposite direction or hit the brakes risking your own life and property to save the life of the animal which has no emotional attachment to you. Just plain action / reaction response. Now the squirrel has managed to make it to the middle of the road. Appearing undisturbed and without warning, he begins to reverse course and heads back to the curb in which he initiated your 10 seconds of torment.

The Housing Market Squirrel

We currently seem to have a housing market that has taken on “squirrel” like tendencies. We have a few months of momentum and it appears we are finally crossing the street to the other side. Then a slight pullback while the dust settles and we start again.

Pasadena Single Family Sales/Inventory


After a disappointing November, December and January have bounced back pretty well. January, which is historically one of the slowest months of the year as homebuyer’s don’t usually shop for houses in the month of December. However we did see a lot of momentum last month compared to January in 2010. Inventory increased by 68 units or 33%, but sales also increased by 40%, plus properties in escrow or “pended” increased by 57%.

Of the homes that sold in January, 30% were distressed properties, either bank owned or a short sale. As of today, ForeclosureRadar is reporting 537 homes in Pasadena have either a Notice of Default filed against it or are scheduled for a foreclosure auction. Despite the national reports of fewer foreclosure filings, the situation in Pasadena doesn’t seem to be improving very quickly.

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Pasadena Home Sales for September

October 23, 2009 By 3 Comments
Pasadena Single Family - Price per Square Foot & Median Price

Beginning this month I am going to change how the monthly sales results are reported for the Pasadena Real Estate market. Instead of just looking at median prices, we are now going to overlay the price per square foot for the same period.

Pasadena Single Family - Price per Square Foot & Median Price

Pasadena Single Family - Price per Square Foot & Median Price

Anytime you hear how sales are being reported in the media the focus is always on median prices. This year has been a very unusual year in the sense that sales of foreclosed homes in Pasadena have been a much bigger segment of the market. As a result the increased unit sales resulting from distressed properties tend to over exaggerate the decline in property values.

The advantage of adding the price per square foot is this measurement will trend along the same lines as the median price of homes sold, but the peaks and valleys are not as pronounced. By eliminating the highs and lows, you will see the natural progression of pricing as we move through the year and seasonality that Pasadena home sales experience. Now having said that the month of May price per square foot of $522 seems way out of line. I went back and checked my numbers and it appears to be at least $100 too high.

Pasadena Single Family Homes - Inventory and Sales Levels

Pasadena Single Family Homes - Inventory and Sales Levels

Pasadena’s Leading Housing Indicators

  1. Units Sold – The fact that unit sales rose quickly and seem to be declining just as fast is probably not cause for concern. It’s not uncommon for home sales to peak in July or August and then slowly decline through the end of the year.
  2. Inventory Levels – With a current inventory level of 4.4 months based upon the current rate of sale, inventory levels are very moderate if not on the low side. I wouldn’t anticipate much change as we approach the holiday season unless we begin to see more foreclosed inventory hitting the market. This could be more of a factor this year due to the moratoriums that were placed on banks foreclosing last year during the fourth and first quarters.

    Summary

    Single Family, Townhome and Condominium Inventory and Sale Units

    Single Family, Townhome and Condominium Inventory and Sale Units


    Overall the outlook for the Pasadena real estate market at least where residential is concerned is much more favorable than this time last year. The forecast for next year could be quickly forthcoming as Congress may or may not extend the $8000 home buyer tax credit. Since we may see the fed begin to withdraw from purchasing mortgage bonds, some type of incentive may be needed to continue the momentum in the housing market. Consumers have become accustomed to interest rates in the low to mid 5% range and without any incentive from Uncle Sam may be contented to sit on the sidelines and wait for the next program to come their way.

    And now you’re up2date on Pasadena real estate.

    The source for the market data used in the graphs is from TRENDGRAPHIX,INC.

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Pasadena Condominium Sales Rebound

September 24, 2009 By Leave a Comment
Price per Square Foot - Single Family Homes in Pasadena Zip 91104

Most media reports are stating that home sales declined in the month of August. What the media is not reporting is that it is not uncommon for home sales to dip in August. Compared on a month to month basis, a seasonality does exist in the reporting of home sales. People prepare for back to school, vacations are taken and August is just plain hot.

The bottom is not falling out of the housing market.

Considering the fact that unit sales did decline from July to August, the flip side is the median price rose significantly. Up over $50,000 to $570,000 form July’s $516,800. Plus the median price has increased every month this year. So, despite the fact that unit sales decreased from 104 units last month to 83 units in August (-20%) it is hardly cause for concern.

Condo/Townhomes

You have probably seen some of the newer units around town which are finally beginning to grab consumers attention This segment of the housing market which has been on the doldrums for quite sometime even surpassed the single family market and had a slight increase in the median price in a year over year comparison.

Homes in Escrow

Homes under contract are still at very high levels while the number of homes available for sale continues to decline. The 4th quarter does not typically see a lot of homes coming on the market. If home sales remain strong, we could even see a shortage of homes for sale. Also the housing stimulus targeted at first time home buyers is set to expire November 30. There is speculation that Congress will extend the benefits or even increase them to include a wider home buying public, not just first timers. Lastly, it appears that the Federal Reserve will attempt to keep interest rates low into the first quarter of 2010.

There seemed to be much speculation that the early positive results we were seeing in real estate were built upon a house of cards. It certainly appears to have a stronger foundation than many us initially thought.

Pasadena Home August Home Sales
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Pasadena’s July Home Sales Are Highest Since 2006

August 11, 2009 By 4 Comments

I don’t think there should be any doubt left in the minds of local residents, the seasonal home selling season has returned. Little did we know or realize that it was going to be 3 years to the day when the market started to fall, or that it would correct itself 36 months later.

It was July 2006 when real estate markets began to soften. A gradual decline eventually turned into a market free fall. However, all of that appears to be behind us as we head into the back half of 2009. The good news if you are a property owner is to look at the median price. In August, months of anguish will soon come to an end as the median price scenario will correct itself. This will probably produce more of a psychological lift than a monetary, but since home buying has much to do with people’s perceptions and where they think the economy is headed it should be treated very positively. If you are in the market to buy a house, the last thing you want to hear is that home prices keep dropping. News like this could very easily make you decide to postpone your purchase. Why buy now if you feel that in a few months you can save some money?

July’s positive news about the Pasadena housing market includes

  1. a 26% increase in unit sales from June
  2. a single family median home price of $600,000
  3. a strong August based upon the homes in escrow
  4. and another strong performance in the townhome and condominium market

The presentation below includes a 5 year pricing history in terms of median prices and unit sales for the Pasadena real estate market.

Pasadena Homes July '09 Analysis
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